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Table 7 Risk equation for CVD incidence incorporating age at quitting, time since quitting & pack-years into smoking status (Model 4)

From: Age at quitting smoking as a predictor of risk of cardiovascular disease incidence independent of smoking status, time since quitting and pack-years

Variable

Parameter Estimate

Standard Error

Chi-Square

P value

Hazard Ratio

95% CI

Sex

0.66579

0.11303

34.6954

<.0001

1.946

1.559

2.429

Sbp

0.03269

0.00315

107.7472

<.0001

1.033

1.027

1.040

Dbp

-0.03884

0.00632

37.8124

<.0001

0.962

0.950

0.974

Total/HDL ratio

0.22400

0.03635

37.9841

<.0001

1.251

1.165

1.343

Diabetes

0.85100

0.15482

30.2145

<.0001

2.342

1.729

3.172

Trglycerides

-0.00185

0.00061

9.1876

0.0024

0.998

0.997

0.999

Pack-years

       

< = 19

0.15082

0.34314

0.1932

0.6603

1.163

0.593

2.278

20-39

0.48640

0.21593

5.0743

0.0243

1.626

1.065

2.483

40+

0.81617

0.16208

25.3579

<.0001

2.262

1.646

3.108

Time since quitting

       

< = 5 years & Age at quitting

       

≤ 44

-0.9483

0.71256

1.7711

0.1832

0.387

0.096

1.566

>44

1.0505

0.18672

31.6533

<.0001

2.859

1.983

4.123

Time since quitting

       

>5 years &

       

Age at quitting

       

≤ 44

-0.1047

0.1595

0.4315

0.5113

0.901

0.659

1.231

>44

0.5923

0.1789

10.9580

0.0009

1.808

1.273

2.568

Test

Total

Event

Censored

 

% Censored

 

3751

383

3368

 

89.79

 

Chi-Square

DF

P value

 

Likelihood Ratio

347.7915

13

<.0001

 

Hosmer Lemeshow

6.5337

9

0.6855

 

Modified HL

6.1388

9

0.7259

 
 

Estimate

SE

95% CI

 

C statistic

0.7680

0.0130

0.7426, 0.7934

 
  1. Note: The reference categories for sex, diabetes and the smoking variable are female, no diabetes and never smoker respectively.