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Table 1 Estimates of fitting parameters and the basic reproduction number for the first wave of the 2009 pandemic in different health regions in the province of Manitoba

From: Variability in transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Canadian communities

 

Parameters

Health Region

r (95% CI)

K (CRC)*

t m

R0(95% CI)

Burntwood

0.3116 (0.2503-0.4208)

187 (186)

June 5

2.24 (1.93-2.88)

North Eastman

0.1991 (0.1734-0.2390)

56 (56)

June 14

1.70 (1.60-1.88)

Norman

0.1746 (0.1458-0.2217)

57 (58)

June 8

1.60 (1.49-1.80)

Interlake

0.1606 (0.1353-0.2023)

53 (54)

June 14

1.55 (1.45-1.72)

Winnipeg

0.2001 (0.1730-0.2397)

395 (401)

June 9

1.71 (1.60-1.89)

Manitoba

0.1949 (0.1700-0.2306)

878 (891)

June 9

1.69 (1.58-1.84)

  1. *CRC cumulative reported cases. Estimates correspond to the best fit of the Richards model to the cumulative number of confirmed cases. 95% confidence interval for R0 corresponds to the average generation time of 2.9 days.