Cause-effect relations between 55 kD soluble TNF receptor concentrations and specific and unspecific symptoms in a patient with mild SLE disease activity: an exploratory time series analysis study

Table 2 Summary of findings including ARIMA models and cross-correlation results between sTNF-R55 concentrations and SLE-specific and SLE-unspecific symptoms

	Urinary sTNF-R55, AR(2) SMA(1), s = 14, ln
Urinary protein, (0,0,0), cube root	−lag2: r = +0.202; p = 0.033	+lag3: r = −0.213; p = 0.024
Oral ulceration, binary-coded	−lag3: r = −0.313; p = 0.001	+lag3: r = +0.277; p = 0.003
Facial rash, binary-coded	n.s.	+lag3: r = −0.223; p = 0.018
Body temperature, deterministic season, s = 2, ln	−lag3: r = +0.209; p = 0.027	n.s.
Weakness, MA(4), ln	n.s.	n.s.
Fatigue, deterministic trend	n.s.	n.s.
Joint pain, AR(1), deterministic trend	n.s.	n.s.

+Lag means that sTNF-R55 levels precede SLE symptom, and –lag means that SLE symptom precedes sTNF-R55 levels
sTNF-R55 soluble tumor necrosis factor 55 kD receptor, AR autoregressive, MA moving average, SMA seasonal moving average, s seasonality, n.s. not significant

ISSN: 1756-0500