Fig. 7

Model system Eqs. (2)–(5) fitted to data for individuals under inpatient rehabilitation in Cape Town and projected for 5 more years. The blue circles indicate the actual data and the solid red line indicates the model fit to the data. The percentages are not of all users, but of those in rehabilitation. The proportion of patients admitted under inpatient rehabilitation facilities in Cape Town is expected to be decreasing for the next five years, see also Fig. 6. This projected decrease in the proportion of inpatient rehabilitants can be an attribute of higher costs usually associated with inpatient rehabilitation programs and as a result, few individuals will afford receiving treatment at those facilities. As can be seen from the incidence curves related to data on inpatient rehabilitants, that inpatient rehabilitation programs have an increased potential of reducing methamphetamine incidence, there are fears that this decrease in the proportion of inpatient rehabilitants will to a greater extend result to higher prevalence rates of use observed for a long period of time