Table 5 Results from probabilistic sensitivity analysis: average costs and upper and lower percentiles (gross costings)
Analysis | Pre implementation (January 2010–June 2012) average € millions (lower and upper percentiles 95 %) | Post implementation (July 2013–June 2015) average € millions (lower and upper percentiles 95 %) | Difference average € millions (lower and upper percentiles 95 %) |
|---|---|---|---|
a. Baseline: €4081/episode of hospitalisationc | 37.82 (2.65–119.34) | 19.87 (1.37–64.10) | 17.95 (1.15–58.90) |
b. Baseline: LMD-ACP LOSa and €491/dayd | 32.49 (18.96–52.34) | 21.83 (12.46–35.40) | 10.67 (−6.10–30.69) |
Ambulance transferse | 0.89 (0.55–1.34) | 0.47 (0.27–0.73) | 0.42 (0.19–0.73) |
Scenario analyses | |||
1. LOS—reference hospital datab and €491/dayf | 44.69 (25.84–70.51) | 20.30 (13.75–28.31) | 24.39 (6.05–48.55) |
2. LOS—LMD-ACD Dataa and €857/dayf | 56.71 (34.61–87.58) | 38.11 (22.48–60.20) | 18.60 (−10.87–52.14) |
3. LOS—reference hospital datab and €857/dayf | 77.98 (47.24–118.78) | 35.43 (25.59–47.01) | 42.55 (10.72–83.16) |