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Table 1 The fit of the two-state markov switching model with time lags of 0, − 1, − 2

From: Predicting the incidence of brucellosis in Western Iran using Markov switching model

Variables (state)

MSM with two states

Lag 0

Lag − 1

Lag − 2

B

SE

p-value

B

SE

p-value

B

SE

p-value

Intercept (1)

3.274

3.073

0.287

9.981

11.531

0.387

33.426

11.879

0.005

Intercept (2)

10.01

11.628

0.389

3.254

3.047

0.286

− 2.162

14.711

0.883

Age (1)

− 0.152

0.016

0

− 0.116

0.118

0.326

− 0.25

0.059

0

Age (2)

− 0.116

0.118

0.327

− 0.152

0.016

0

0.499

0.224

0.026

Month (1)

1.618

0.108

0

0.817

0.371

0.028

1.164

0.408

0.004

Month (2)

0.816

0.371

0.028

1.618

0.108

0

− 0.045

0.585

0.939

Rural ratio (1)

3.172

0.113

0

− 0.287

0.389

0.461

2.666

0.513

0

Rural ratio (2)

− 0.287

0.389

0.461

3.173

0.113

0

0.164

0.365

0.653

Men ratio (1)

2.92

0.079

0

− 3.009

0.665

0

− 3.013

0.608

0

Men ratio (2)

− 3.012

0.667

0

2.928

0.1

0

1.412

1.517

0.352

Non-pasteurized dairy (1)

− 0.57

0.07

0

0.569

0.229

0.013

1.056

0.296

0

Non-pasteurized dairy (2)

0.57

0.229

0.0127

− 0.571

0.069

0

− 0.273

0.23

0.235

Average monthly temperature (1)

− 4.223

0.135

0

0.241

0.82

0.769

0.935

0.859

0.276

Average monthly temperature (2)

0.239

0.852

0.779

− 4.229

0.142

0

− 2.546

1.017

0.012

Total monthly rainfall (1)

− 0.038

0.015

0.012

− 0.034

0.041

0.405

− 0.242

0.048

0

Total monthly rainfall (2)

− 0.034

0.041

0.405

− 0.038

0.015

0.011

0.009

0.053

0.85

Average wind speed (1)

1.509

0.214

0

19.024

2.848

0

18.097

3.285

0

Average wind speed (2)

19.017

2.869

0

1.533

0.185

0

5.163

3.336

0.122

Maximum monthly temperature (1)

1.717

0.119

0

− 0.177

0.567

0.754

− 1.377

0.597

0.021

Maximum monthly temperature (2)

− 0.176

0.585

0.763

1.718

0.118

0

0.722

0.629

0.251

Minimum monthly temperature (1)

3.203

0.096

0

0.231

0.408

0.572

0.345

0.403

0.393

Minimum monthly temperature (2)

0.231

0.417

0.579

3.207

0.101

0

2.289

0.599

0

Wind speed (1)

0.944

0.072

0

− 0.698

0.301

0.02

− 0.433

0.25

0.083

Wind speed (2)

− 0.699

0.302

0.02

0.944

0.072

0

0.469

0.288

0.103

Ratio of contact with livestock (1)

− 0.387

0.059

0

0.904

0.28

0.001

0.283

0.221

0.2

Ratio of contact with livestock (2)

0.904

0.28

0.001

− 0.387

0.059

0

1.212

0.561

0.031