From: Predicting the incidence of brucellosis in Western Iran using Markov switching model
Variables (state) | MSM with two states | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lag 0 | Lag − 1 | Lag − 2 | |||||||
B | SE | p-value | B | SE | p-value | B | SE | p-value | |
Intercept (1) | 3.274 | 3.073 | 0.287 | 9.981 | 11.531 | 0.387 | 33.426 | 11.879 | 0.005 |
Intercept (2) | 10.01 | 11.628 | 0.389 | 3.254 | 3.047 | 0.286 | − 2.162 | 14.711 | 0.883 |
Age (1) | − 0.152 | 0.016 | 0 | − 0.116 | 0.118 | 0.326 | − 0.25 | 0.059 | 0 |
Age (2) | − 0.116 | 0.118 | 0.327 | − 0.152 | 0.016 | 0 | 0.499 | 0.224 | 0.026 |
Month (1) | 1.618 | 0.108 | 0 | 0.817 | 0.371 | 0.028 | 1.164 | 0.408 | 0.004 |
Month (2) | 0.816 | 0.371 | 0.028 | 1.618 | 0.108 | 0 | − 0.045 | 0.585 | 0.939 |
Rural ratio (1) | 3.172 | 0.113 | 0 | − 0.287 | 0.389 | 0.461 | 2.666 | 0.513 | 0 |
Rural ratio (2) | − 0.287 | 0.389 | 0.461 | 3.173 | 0.113 | 0 | 0.164 | 0.365 | 0.653 |
Men ratio (1) | 2.92 | 0.079 | 0 | − 3.009 | 0.665 | 0 | − 3.013 | 0.608 | 0 |
Men ratio (2) | − 3.012 | 0.667 | 0 | 2.928 | 0.1 | 0 | 1.412 | 1.517 | 0.352 |
Non-pasteurized dairy (1) | − 0.57 | 0.07 | 0 | 0.569 | 0.229 | 0.013 | 1.056 | 0.296 | 0 |
Non-pasteurized dairy (2) | 0.57 | 0.229 | 0.0127 | − 0.571 | 0.069 | 0 | − 0.273 | 0.23 | 0.235 |
Average monthly temperature (1) | − 4.223 | 0.135 | 0 | 0.241 | 0.82 | 0.769 | 0.935 | 0.859 | 0.276 |
Average monthly temperature (2) | 0.239 | 0.852 | 0.779 | − 4.229 | 0.142 | 0 | − 2.546 | 1.017 | 0.012 |
Total monthly rainfall (1) | − 0.038 | 0.015 | 0.012 | − 0.034 | 0.041 | 0.405 | − 0.242 | 0.048 | 0 |
Total monthly rainfall (2) | − 0.034 | 0.041 | 0.405 | − 0.038 | 0.015 | 0.011 | 0.009 | 0.053 | 0.85 |
Average wind speed (1) | 1.509 | 0.214 | 0 | 19.024 | 2.848 | 0 | 18.097 | 3.285 | 0 |
Average wind speed (2) | 19.017 | 2.869 | 0 | 1.533 | 0.185 | 0 | 5.163 | 3.336 | 0.122 |
Maximum monthly temperature (1) | 1.717 | 0.119 | 0 | − 0.177 | 0.567 | 0.754 | − 1.377 | 0.597 | 0.021 |
Maximum monthly temperature (2) | − 0.176 | 0.585 | 0.763 | 1.718 | 0.118 | 0 | 0.722 | 0.629 | 0.251 |
Minimum monthly temperature (1) | 3.203 | 0.096 | 0 | 0.231 | 0.408 | 0.572 | 0.345 | 0.403 | 0.393 |
Minimum monthly temperature (2) | 0.231 | 0.417 | 0.579 | 3.207 | 0.101 | 0 | 2.289 | 0.599 | 0 |
Wind speed (1) | 0.944 | 0.072 | 0 | − 0.698 | 0.301 | 0.02 | − 0.433 | 0.25 | 0.083 |
Wind speed (2) | − 0.699 | 0.302 | 0.02 | 0.944 | 0.072 | 0 | 0.469 | 0.288 | 0.103 |
Ratio of contact with livestock (1) | − 0.387 | 0.059 | 0 | 0.904 | 0.28 | 0.001 | 0.283 | 0.221 | 0.2 |
Ratio of contact with livestock (2) | 0.904 | 0.28 | 0.001 | − 0.387 | 0.059 | 0 | 1.212 | 0.561 | 0.031 |