Fig. 2

Expected average time (hours) in pain (95% confidence interval) at each level of pain intensity due to a type of leg fracture. Parameter values (pain intensity and duration) are depicted in Fig. 1B. The uncertainties associated with the duration of each segment were propagated with a Monte Carlo simulation [34], assuming a gaussian distribution for the duration interval. The expected times in pain endured by the average member of a population due to the fractures can be determined by weighing the total times by the estimated fracture prevalence. For illustrative purposes, assuming a prevalence of 5–10%, expected times in excruciating, disabling, hurtful and annoying pain by the average population member are, respectively: 0.2 (0.2–1) minutes; 11 (6.5–16) hours, 13 (7.6–20) hours and 33 (22–48) hours