Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

BMC Research Notes

Table 3 Mean results, incremental effects, costs, cost-effectiveness ratio and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER)

Model scenario	time	Mean value parameter			Δeffects*	Δcosts*	ICER
		failure	NC	uptake
Start	2005	0.27	0.35	0.03	0.0010	€ 1,940	€ 1,9 mill
*Separate scenarios*
Failure	2010	0.20	Idem	Idem	0.0011	€ 2,094	€ 1,9 mill
Failure	2020	0.08	Idem	Idem	0.0013	€ 2,385	€ 1,9 mill
Non-compliance	2010	Idem	0.26	Idem	0.0011	€ 1,939	€ 1,7 mill
Non-compliance	2020	Idem	0.08	Idem	0.0013	€ 1,940	€ 1,5 mill
Uptake	2010	Idem	Idem	0.50	0.0592	€ 1,547	€ 26,145
Uptake	2020	Idem	Idem	0.92	0.1089	€ 1,211	€ 11,123
*Combined scenarios*
2005		0.27	0.35	0.03	0.0010	€ 1,940	€ 1,9 mill
2010		0.20	0.26	0.50	0.0728	€ 1,630	€ 22,388
2020		0.08	0.08	0.92	0.1492	€ 1,171	€ 7,853

Δeffects: Incremental effects of 70-gene signature compared to the Adjuvant Online, Δcosts: Incremental costs of 70-gene signature compared to the Adjuvant Online, ICER: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, NC: non compliance.

ISSN: 1756-0500