Country | Cases | Deaths | ICL (Rt)1 | eSIR (Rt)2 | SEIR (Rt)3 | RMSE4 | MAE5 |
|---|
Ethiopia (ET) | 363,714 | 6412 | 2.50 (1.9–5.95) | 2.75 | 2.98 | 4.257 | 0.027 |
ET + BCG | 363,714 | 6412 | 1.67 (1.5–3.19) | | | 4.138 | 0.026 |
ET(40 +) + BCG | 134,716 | 5408 | 5.25 (3.3–8.16) | | | 3.558 | 0.026 |
Kenya (KE) | 252,938 | 5266 | 3.51 (2.8–7.28) | 2.70 | 2.51 | 4.652 | 0.033 |
KE + BCG | 252,938 | 5266 | 5.34 (3.5–7.99) | | | 31.014 | 0.219 |
KE(0–39) + BCG | 159,259 | 821 | 5.18 (3.8–7.87) | | | 33.642 | 1.449 |
KE(40 +) + BCG | 93,679 | 4445 | 5.15 (3.2–7.67) | | | 3.701 | 0.031 |
Rwanda (RW) | 99,559 | 1322 | 3.53 (2.7–5.60) | 3.10 | 2.03 | 0.932 | 0.051 |
RW + BCG | 99,559 | 1322 | 6.32 (4.53–13.34) | | | 0.962 | 0.053 |
RW(0–39) + BCG | 62,693 | 180 | 5.21 (3.5–8.62) | | | 0.151 | 0.057 |
RW(40 +) + BCG | 36,866 | 1142 | 5.93 (4.4–9.97) | | | 0.834 | 0.052 |
- 1ICL (Rt) - Imperial College London (ICL) model estimates of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). 2eSIR (Rt) - the extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) compartmental model estimates of the time-varying reproduction number. 3SEIR(Rt) - susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model estimates of the time-varying reproduction number. 4RMSE measures the model (ICL) prediction accuracy against the observed data in a regression analysis. It is the Root of the Mean of the Square of Errors between the predicted and the observed COVID-19 cases and deaths. 5MAE measures the accuracy of the model fit in terms of performance in its predictions - the Mean of Absolute value of Errors between the predicted and the observed COVID-19 cases and deaths. The mean Rt values projected by the ICL model overlapped with the SEIR and eSIR models. However, the ICL model tends to overestimate Rt values while the SEIR model had less variability (Table 1) [31]
